I need some assistance with these assignment. the effects of estimation error on measures of portfolio credit risk Thank you in advance for the help! More precisely, I analyse the impact of uncertainty about input parameters on the precision of measures of portfolio risk. I confine the analysis to losses from the default, i.e., exclude the risk of credit quality changes, and model default correlations by means of correlated latent variables. The framework builds on CreditMetrics (JP Morgan, 1997), and closely resembles the one used by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2001) to adjust capital requirements for concentration risks.

The necessary inputs for assessing default risk are default rates, recovery rates, and default correlations. They are usually derived from historical data, which means that their precision can be inferred using standard statistical methodology. This is the first step of the analysis in this paper. In the second, I determine the accuracy of value at risk (VaR) measures in the presence of noisy input parameters. This is done separately for portfolios which differ in their average credit quality and in diversification across obligors.

The aim of such an analysis is threefold. First, the results are useful for defining the role credit risk models should play in credit portfolio management and bank regulation. Second, modelling parameter uncertainty allows computing risk measures which take estimation error into account. Since the loss distribution is a non-linear function of the input parameters, its estimate can be biased even if the parameter estimates are not. To correct such biases, I employ a Bayesian approach and analyse the predictive distribution, which averages the loss distributions pertaining to different but possibly true parameter values. Finally, the analysis helps to identify inputs with a large marginal benefit of increasing input quality.

The analysis shows that estimation error in input parameters leads to considerable noise in estimated portfolio risk. The confidence bounds for risk measures are so wide that losses which are judged to occur with a probability of 0.3% may actually occur with a probability of 1%. Several observations, however, suggest that available credit risk models can be useful for risk management purposes even though their application is plagued with data problems. The magnitude of estimation error is comparable to a setting in which VaR estimates can be based on a long time series of portfolio losses, and it differs little between perfectly diversified portfolios and small portfolios with 50 obligors. In addition, the bias in conventional VaR figures which result from estimation error is modest. The relative importance of the three input factors for the quality of VaR estimates depends on the portfolio structure and the extremeness of the events under analysis. The impact of correlation uncertainty, for instance, is larger for more extreme events and for riskier portfolios.&nbsp.

Need help with my writing homework on A Great Controversy Among Historians About the Figure of Louis XIV. Write a 2750 word paper answering; Louis XIV thought that his entire life has to be the walk of a great king in a great country, the entire country being resumed in his divine-right, absolute monarch. It is possible that he never said the famous statement historians had always attributed to him, “L’ètat, c’est Moi” (I am the state). But, as Jacques Bousset and Jean Domat1 were theorizing (Domat 1829), he considered himself to be God’s instrument on earth, and clearly felt that the state was his patrimony, as J. Nathan suggests (The Virginia Quarterly Review, J. Nathan). In his letters to his heirs, he explains his thought: “…A king works for himself when he has the state in mind, and the welfare of the one enhances the glory of the other”. Bearing this idea in mind, he devoted his life to the achievement of his glory and, therefore, of the glory of France. And he believed that war was the main mean to achieve his greatness. Through all the wars he sustained during his life, he tried to force all European nations to accept the French hegemony. He never really worked to establish a harmonic co-existence with other European nations (The Virginia Quarterly Review, J. Nathan). He did steer France through a series of wars in order to dictate Europe his idea of order: all nations united under the legitimate hegemony of France. Diplomacy was in his hands only a mean to keep enemies occupied while he prepared the army, and nobody was better than him in betraying his own words. As once he wrote to his ambassador: “…there are hardly any words in the world so clear..that do not have some exceptions and contrary reasons…”.

Compose a 1750 words assignment on avoidant personality disorder. Needs to be plagiarism free! The victims find themselves inhibited socially and feel generally inept psychologically. This inhibition and feeling of inadequacy make the victims to be avoidant of places, activities, or even work which involve social interaction with other people (Castillo 500). It has been noted that people who suffer Avoidant Personality Disorder usually monitor the movements and expressions of the people they meet so carefully. This is because they have a deep fear and a feeling of worthlessness hence they develop a tense demeanor which in turn brings out their personal worries. Such people tend to be so and their reaction to criticism is usually blushing or even crying. They are usually referred to by others as timid, lonely, or shy since they mostly prefer seclusion.

This problem is associated with the major problem of the victim having very low self-esteem and very high sensitivity to rejection. This affects the victim’s occupational functioning as it restricts their interpersonal relations. Their avoidant traits make them avoid many practical social situations which may be important in making them hit their workplace demands and targets. This also affects their occupational advancement. In most cases, they prefer isolation as they feel they lack a large social support network to enable them to overcome their problems. Like all other normal people, individuals who suffer from Avoidant Personality disorder have an inward longing for affection and acceptance. They sometimes visualize imaginary relationships with other people who they like symptoms (Dobbert 306).

A disorder of human personality generally reflects a hidden pattern of inward experience and trait which diverges from a person’s cultural norms and practices. Such a hidden pattern is usually reflected in the aspects of impulse control, cognition, or interpersonal relations. The pattern is usually flexible and persistent over a wide range of individual and social issues. It often brings about great distress and harm in an individual’s working pattern and social situations (Kantor 257).&nbsp.

You will prepare and submit a term paper on Attrition from Diabetes Self-Management Education. Your paper should be a minimum of 750 words in length. In the US alone the figures released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 2008 indicate that nearly 24 million people are affected by diabetes in the country, which indicates an increase of over 3 million in the last two years (Daly et al, 2009).

Such alarming projections underline the importance of self-help groups and self-management education of the disease. Diabetes Self Management Education (DSME) is considered an important tool for controlling to some extent the epidemic proportions acquired by the disease in recent times. Such measures are known to improve preventive care practices as it helps the patients to lead a disciplined life, thus controlling the extent of the damage. During such education, the patient gets to know the necessary knowledge, skills and self-care methods. In addition, the patients also share their experiences, which in turn others in learning from the shortcomings and mistakes. But the SMEs have been found to suffer from some limitations in that they are not able to maintain the numbers and enthusiasm of the patients, which leads to some amount of attrition from DSME centers. An effort is being made through this study to find out some such cases and correlate the findings to come out with factors contributing to the attrition rate.

During their research on the subject Peyrot et al (2009).&nbsp.

Expansion of innovative DSME delivery mechanism plays a key role in influencing the access and delivery of DSME, particularly in community-based settings (Peyrot et al, 2009). The ICT era presents a number of opportunities for educators to be innovative in their approach while reaching out to the patients. Such an approach not only helps in easy reaching out to the patient, but it also helps in saving on the costs. The results based on internet surveys of more than a thousand adult diabetes patients indicted that, Diabetes self-management education (DSME) can prove to be of significant help in contributing towards the health and well being of diabetic patients. It was also found out that those having not taken the services of SMEs are not fully aware of the benefits of them, but those aware of their functioning highly regarded the benefits of such education centers. It might, therefore, appear quite intriguing that even after being fully aware of the benefits, the attrition rate is on the higher side.

Research by Peyrot et al (2009) also found out that patients have experienced the benefits of SMEs also inform others as well about the positive side of undergoing a disciplined routine with DSME. The fact that physicians too want more support from self-management groups and educators, is an indication of the impact such educations can have on the patients. But physicians also find that the educators often tell the patients to do things which quite often they don’t agree with. That implies that the SMEs need to be more user-friendly, and they might need to assess the need even on an individual basis instead of categorizing them.

Create a 3 pages page paper that discusses motivation, emotion, and learning unit 2 ip. After the end of the three days, the frequency of each emotion experienced across the total reporting period and on preset times on each day (For example, anger=1, joy=2, sad=1, anxious=3, etc.) was calculated. Thereafter an analysis was made of the physiological (internal and expressive body changes) and cognitive (specific thoughts occurring during an emotion) components of emotions in the experience. The findings are reported below.

There are several psychological frameworks that define and operationally emotion (e.g., Izard 1977. Mehrabian and Russell 1974. Plutchik 1980). The present research uses Izard’s framework which “assumes that separate and discrete emotions exist and that each has measurable, experiential, and motivational properties” (Izard 1972, p. 85). In his Differential Emotions Theory Izard (1972) conceptualizes ten fundamental emotions: joy, surprise, anger, disgust, contempt, shame, guilt, fear, interest, and sadness.

Given the fact that the time period chosen was that of three consecutive days and observation points comprised of preset 7 vantage time periods on each day, it was inevitable that the felt emotions would source from out of major events that either preceded these days or occurred during these days. The predominant emotions observed during the period were Anger (15), Contempt (16), Disgust (11) and Interest (12). It was observed that the first three had occurred in tandem as they were basically caused by a single event. The last interest was caused by a separate event. There were two events that had primarily originated the predominant emotions in the observation period. The event causing disgust, anger, and contempt in tandem involved a gory media reporting of a riot involving a crowd in a developing country. The graphic images shown over media had immersed in attention span substantially and a lot of time was spent analyzing this event which explains the high frequency of the three emotions felt in tandem. Interest was evinced by another event that involved receiving a personal bursary from my distantly related uncle who was arriving from the UK to assess me for the grant of this bursary.

Anger invariably resulted in racing of heart and tightening of arm muscles. A little tightening was felt in thigh muscles as well. The eyes got a little bloodshot with bleary effect. However, despite all these effects, all senses seem to sharpen with anger. Disgust essentially produced tightening of stomach muscles. It was accompanied by eyebrow pull up and screwing of eyes. Contempt produced physical effects quite similar to those produced by anger with the difference that fists formed almost involuntarily and teeth clenched hard, as the contempt emotion traversed from one end to the other. Interest emotion was accompanied by the widening of eyes and slight outward popping of eyeballs.